The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenAugust 29, 2026

Axelsson / Coello v Gutierrez / Melendez

Pro Padel 101:35

Pre-match odds

Axelsson / Coello

53%

Avg Elo 1587

Gutierrez / Melendez

47%

Avg Elo 1577

Elo gap 10

Gutierrez / Melendez won a near coin flip (47%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Axelsson / CoelloGutierrez / Melendez

45%
Points won
55%
54%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
46%
52%
1st-serve points won
67%
83%
2nd-serve points won
56%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
44%
Points won returning 2nd serve
17%
67%
Break points converted
50%
7
Longest run of points
6
13
Service games
13
Stats by set

Set 1

55%
Points won
45%
46%
Points won on serve
37%
63%
Points won on return
54%
44%
1st-serve points won
38%
67%
2nd-serve points won
25%
62%
Points won returning 1st serve
56%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
80%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
4

Set 2

43%
Points won
57%
58%
Points won on serve
78%
22%
Points won on return
42%
55%
1st-serve points won
80%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
20%
Points won returning 1st serve
45%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Set 3

36%
Points won
64%
58%
Points won on serve
100%
0%
Points won on return
42%
58%
1st-serve points won
100%
0%
2nd-serve points won
100%
0%
Points won returning 1st serve
42%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.