Round of 16WomenAugust 30, 2026
Marchetti / Arruabarrena v Casali / Margherita
Pre-match odds
64%
Avg Elo 1563
36%
Avg Elo 1511
Elo gap 52
Marchetti / Arruabarrena delivered as 64% favourites.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Marchetti / ArruabarrenaCasali / Margherita
- Points won 44%
- Points won on serve 57%
- Points won on return 28%
- 1st-serve points won 60%
- 2nd-serve points won 42%
- Points won returning 1st serve 27%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 33%
- Break points converted 20%
- Longest run of points 5
- Service games 9
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 43%
- Points won on serve 52%
- Points won on return 33%
- 1st-serve points won 59%
- 2nd-serve points won 20%
- Points won returning 1st serve 27%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 60%
- Break points converted 33%
- Longest run of points 5
- Service games 4
Set 2
- Points won 45%
- Points won on serve 61%
- Points won on return 22%
- 1st-serve points won 61%
- 2nd-serve points won 57%
- Points won returning 1st serve 26%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 0%
- Break points converted 0%
- Longest run of points 4
- Service games 5
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.