The Padel Brief

Round of 16WomenAugust 30, 2026

Martinez / Carnicero v Cañellas / Martinez

Pro Padel 101:30

Pre-match odds

Martinez / Carnicero

67%

Avg Elo 1566

Cañellas / Martinez

33%

Avg Elo 1505

Elo gap 61

Martinez / Carnicero delivered as 67% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Martinez / CarniceroCañellas / Martinez

53%
Points won
47%
62%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
38%
64%
1st-serve points won
52%
44%
2nd-serve points won
88%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
12%
Points won returning 2nd serve
56%
62%
Break points converted
22%
6
Longest run of points
12
12
Service games
12
Stats by set

Set 1

39%
Points won
61%
63%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
37%
71%
1st-serve points won
78%
40%
2nd-serve points won
100%
22%
Points won returning 1st serve
29%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
0%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
12
4
Service games
5

Set 2

60%
Points won
40%
60%
Points won on serve
41%
59%
Points won on return
40%
62%
1st-serve points won
31%
33%
2nd-serve points won
75%
69%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
100%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
3

Set 3

59%
Points won
41%
64%
Points won on serve
45%
55%
Points won on return
36%
62%
1st-serve points won
41%
100%
2nd-serve points won
100%
59%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.