The Padel Brief

Round of 64MenSeptember 7, 2026

Patiniotis / Garcia v Fernandez / Del Castillo

Pre-match odds

Patiniotis / Garcia

59%

Avg Elo 1619

Fernandez / Del Castillo

41%

Avg Elo 1589

Elo gap 30

Patiniotis / Garcia delivered as 59% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Patiniotis / GarciaFernandez / Del Castillo

51%
Points won
49%
67%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
33%
66%
1st-serve points won
67%
69%
2nd-serve points won
71%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
34%
29%
Points won returning 2nd serve
31%
75%
Break points converted
27%
6
Longest run of points
5
18
Service games
18
Stats by set

Set 1

54%
Points won
46%
65%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
35%
66%
1st-serve points won
56%
62%
2nd-serve points won
75%
44%
Points won returning 1st serve
34%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
38%
100%
Break points converted
33%
6
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 2

49%
Points won
51%
67%
Points won on serve
68%
32%
Points won on return
33%
66%
1st-serve points won
68%
75%
2nd-serve points won
75%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
34%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
50%
Break points converted
33%
6
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 3

49%
Points won
51%
68%
Points won on serve
76%
24%
Points won on return
32%
68%
1st-serve points won
79%
75%
2nd-serve points won
67%
21%
Points won returning 1st serve
32%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
0%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.