The Padel Brief

Round of 64MenSeptember 8, 2026

Geens / Guichard v Ruiz / Pineda

Philippe Chatrier00:57

Pre-match odds

Geens / Guichard

69%

Avg Elo 1639

Ruiz / Pineda

31%

Avg Elo 1569

Elo gap 70

Geens / Guichard delivered as 69% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Geens / GuichardRuiz / Pineda

63%
Points won
37%
69%
Points won on serve
43%
57%
Points won on return
31%
72%
1st-serve points won
47%
56%
2nd-serve points won
0%
53%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
44%
50%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
3
7
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

68%
Points won
32%
68%
Points won on serve
33%
67%
Points won on return
32%
69%
1st-serve points won
35%
67%
2nd-serve points won
0%
65%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
60%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3

Set 2

59%
Points won
41%
69%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
31%
75%
1st-serve points won
54%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
46%
Points won returning 1st serve
25%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
40%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.