The Padel Brief

Round of 64MenSeptember 8, 2026

Moya / Leygue v Gala / Jensen

Philippe Chatrier02:17

Pre-match odds

Upset
Moya / Leygue

8%

Avg Elo 1516

Gala / Jensen

92%

Avg Elo 1723

Elo gap 207

Moya / Leygue won with a 8% chance — about 1 in 12.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Moya / LeygueGala / Jensen

51%
Points won
49%
67%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
33%
65%
1st-serve points won
70%
80%
2nd-serve points won
45%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
55%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
17%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
5
11
Service games
11
Stats by set

Set 1

49%
Points won
51%
69%
Points won on serve
72%
28%
Points won on return
31%
69%
1st-serve points won
73%
67%
2nd-serve points won
67%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
0%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 2

53%
Points won
47%
64%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
36%
59%
1st-serve points won
67%
86%
2nd-serve points won
20%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
80%
Points won returning 2nd serve
14%
33%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.