The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenSeptember 9, 2026

Garcia / Aguirre v Ruiz / Garcia

Court 500:44

Pre-match odds

Garcia / Aguirre

35%

Avg Elo 1639

Ruiz / Garcia

65%

Avg Elo 1693

Elo gap 54

Ruiz / Garcia delivered as 65% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Garcia / AguirreRuiz / Garcia

30%
Points won
70%
39%
Points won on serve
83%
17%
Points won on return
61%
42%
1st-serve points won
85%
27%
2nd-serve points won
50%
15%
Points won returning 1st serve
58%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
73%
0%
Break points converted
86%
5
Longest run of points
8
7
Service games
6
Stats by set

Set 1

33%
Points won
67%
40%
Points won on serve
75%
25%
Points won on return
60%
44%
1st-serve points won
80%
25%
2nd-serve points won
0%
20%
Points won returning 1st serve
56%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
0%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
3

Set 2

27%
Points won
73%
38%
Points won on serve
92%
8%
Points won on return
62%
41%
1st-serve points won
92%
29%
2nd-serve points won
100%
8%
Points won returning 1st serve
59%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
71%
0%
Break points converted
75%
3
Longest run of points
8
3
Service games
3

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.