The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenSeptember 9, 2026

Collado / Hernandez v Navarro / Di Nenno

Pre-match odds

Collado / Hernandez

5%

Avg Elo 1613

Navarro / Di Nenno

95%

Avg Elo 1868

Elo gap 255

Navarro / Di Nenno delivered as 95% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Collado / HernandezNavarro / Di Nenno

36%
Points won
64%
49%
Points won on serve
77%
23%
Points won on return
51%
46%
1st-serve points won
77%
75%
2nd-serve points won
75%
23%
Points won returning 1st serve
54%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
0%
Break points converted
100%
4
Longest run of points
10
8
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

35%
Points won
65%
48%
Points won on serve
81%
19%
Points won on return
52%
46%
1st-serve points won
84%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
16%
Points won returning 1st serve
54%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
10
4
Service games
4

Set 2

38%
Points won
62%
50%
Points won on serve
73%
27%
Points won on return
50%
47%
1st-serve points won
70%
67%
2nd-serve points won
100%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
53%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
0%
Break points converted
100%
4
Longest run of points
10
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.