The Padel Brief

Round of 16MenSeptember 10, 2026

Martinez / Hernandez v Navarro / Di Nenno

Pre-match odds

Martinez / Hernandez

10%

Avg Elo 1680

Navarro / Di Nenno

90%

Avg Elo 1871

Elo gap 191

Navarro / Di Nenno delivered as 90% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Martinez / HernandezNavarro / Di Nenno

44%
Points won
56%
51%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
49%
51%
1st-serve points won
62%
50%
2nd-serve points won
57%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
49%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
20%
Break points converted
62%
6
Longest run of points
6
9
Service games
9
1
Double faults
0
Stats by set

Set 1

44%
Points won
56%
39%
Points won on serve
52%
48%
Points won on return
61%
38%
1st-serve points won
48%
43%
2nd-serve points won
100%
52%
Points won returning 1st serve
62%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
57%
40%
Break points converted
57%
6
Longest run of points
6
5
Service games
4
1
Double faults
0

Set 2

45%
Points won
55%
65%
Points won on serve
70%
30%
Points won on return
35%
64%
1st-serve points won
75%
100%
2nd-serve points won
40%
25%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
60%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
100%
4
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
5

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.