Round of 16MenSeptember 10, 2026
Nieto / Yanguas v Goñi / Alonso
Pre-match odds
UpsetNieto / Yanguas
75%
Avg Elo 1836
Goñi / Alonso
25%
Avg Elo 1742
Elo gap 94
Goñi / Alonso won with a 25% chance — about 1 in 4.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.