The Padel Brief

SemifinalMenSeptember 12, 2026

Tapia / Coello v Lebron / Augsburger

Philippe-Chatrier01:06

Pre-match odds

Tapia / Coello

91%

Avg Elo 2086

Lebron / Augsburger

9%

Avg Elo 1882

Elo gap 204

Tapia / Coello delivered as 91% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Tapia / CoelloLebron / Augsburger

56%
Points won
44%
77%
Points won on serve
64%
36%
Points won on return
23%
76%
1st-serve points won
69%
100%
2nd-serve points won
29%
31%
Points won returning 1st serve
24%
71%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
5
11
Service games
10
Stats by set

Set 1

54%
Points won
46%
74%
Points won on serve
69%
31%
Points won on return
26%
74%
1st-serve points won
76%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
24%
Points won returning 1st serve
26%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Set 2

60%
Points won
40%
80%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
20%
80%
1st-serve points won
61%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
20%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.