The Padel Brief

Round of 64WomenSeptember 8, 2026

Manquillo / Martinez v Las Heras / Mesa

Pre-match odds

Manquillo / Martinez

59%

Avg Elo 1633

Las Heras / Mesa

41%

Avg Elo 1602

Elo gap 31

Las Heras / Mesa won as slight underdogs (41%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Manquillo / MartinezLas Heras / Mesa

49%
Points won
51%
61%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
39%
61%
1st-serve points won
63%
67%
2nd-serve points won
64%
37%
Points won returning 1st serve
39%
36%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
67%
Break points converted
100%
9
Longest run of points
8
16
Service games
16
Stats by set

Set 1

48%
Points won
52%
68%
Points won on serve
69%
31%
Points won on return
32%
68%
1st-serve points won
68%
0%
2nd-serve points won
80%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
32%
20%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
100%
7
Longest run of points
7
6
Service games
6

Set 2

54%
Points won
46%
61%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
39%
62%
1st-serve points won
57%
50%
2nd-serve points won
50%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
67%
Break points converted
100%
9
Longest run of points
8
5
Service games
5

Set 3

45%
Points won
55%
52%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
48%
50%
1st-serve points won
62%
100%
2nd-serve points won
57%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
50%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
100%
4
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.