The Padel Brief

Round of 64WomenSeptember 8, 2026

Collombon / Sharifova v Lobo / Arellano

Philippe Chatrier01:52

Pre-match odds

Upset
Collombon / Sharifova

84%

Avg Elo 1633

Lobo / Arellano

16%

Avg Elo 1490

Elo gap 143

Lobo / Arellano won with a 16% chance — about 1 in 6.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Collombon / SharifovaLobo / Arellano

47%
Points won
53%
64%
Points won on serve
69%
31%
Points won on return
36%
65%
1st-serve points won
70%
57%
2nd-serve points won
62%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
38%
Points won returning 2nd serve
43%
14%
Break points converted
29%
7
Longest run of points
9
10
Service games
11
Stats by set

Set 1

41%
Points won
59%
67%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
33%
63%
1st-serve points won
83%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
17%
Points won returning 1st serve
37%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
8
4
Service games
5

Set 2

49%
Points won
51%
62%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
38%
65%
1st-serve points won
63%
40%
2nd-serve points won
67%
37%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
14%
Break points converted
17%
7
Longest run of points
9
6
Service games
6

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.