The Padel Brief

Round of 64WomenSeptember 8, 2026

Cañellas / Martinez v Martinez / Lujan

Pre-match odds

Upset
Cañellas / Martinez

30%

Avg Elo 1490

Martinez / Lujan

70%

Avg Elo 1563

Elo gap 73

Cañellas / Martinez won with a 30% chance — about 1 in 3.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Cañellas / MartinezMartinez / Lujan

56%
Points won
44%
58%
Points won on serve
46%
54%
Points won on return
42%
59%
1st-serve points won
43%
50%
2nd-serve points won
62%
57%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
38%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
38%
Break points converted
38%
8
Longest run of points
5
10
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

52%
Points won
48%
58%
Points won on serve
54%
46%
Points won on return
42%
58%
1st-serve points won
48%
60%
2nd-serve points won
83%
52%
Points won returning 1st serve
42%
17%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
38%
Break points converted
33%
6
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 2

62%
Points won
38%
58%
Points won on serve
32%
68%
Points won on return
42%
62%
1st-serve points won
35%
40%
2nd-serve points won
0%
65%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
38%
Break points converted
50%
8
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
3

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.