The Padel Brief

Round of 32WomenSeptember 9, 2026

Dubins / Ramme v Ortiz / Kurz

Winner
66
Suzanne Lenglen01:09

Pre-match odds

Upset
Dubins / Ramme

76%

Avg Elo 1612

Ortiz / Kurz

24%

Avg Elo 1511

Elo gap 102

Ortiz / Kurz won with a 24% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Dubins / RammeOrtiz / Kurz

38%
Points won
62%
40%
Points won on serve
65%
35%
Points won on return
60%
43%
1st-serve points won
65%
0%
2nd-serve points won
67%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
57%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
50%
Break points converted
50%
5
Longest run of points
7
8
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

44%
Points won
56%
47%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
53%
50%
1st-serve points won
61%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
50%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
50%
Break points converted
33%
5
Longest run of points
6
5
Service games
4

Set 2

28%
Points won
72%
30%
Points won on serve
75%
25%
Points won on return
70%
32%
1st-serve points won
71%
0%
2nd-serve points won
100%
29%
Points won returning 1st serve
68%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
7
3
Service games
3

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.