The Padel Brief

Round of 32WomenSeptember 9, 2026

Caldera / Goenaga v Escacena / Aguilar

Pre-match odds

Caldera / Goenaga

88%

Avg Elo 1798

Escacena / Aguilar

12%

Avg Elo 1627

Elo gap 171

Caldera / Goenaga delivered as 88% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Caldera / GoenagaEscacena / Aguilar

56%
Points won
44%
69%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
31%
74%
1st-serve points won
59%
44%
2nd-serve points won
36%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
26%
64%
Points won returning 2nd serve
56%
50%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
5
9
Service games
10
Stats by set

Set 1

60%
Points won
40%
72%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
28%
78%
1st-serve points won
50%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
22%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
50%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
5

Set 2

53%
Points won
47%
67%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
33%
70%
1st-serve points won
68%
57%
2nd-serve points won
20%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
80%
Points won returning 2nd serve
43%
50%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.