The Padel Brief

Round of 32WomenSeptember 9, 2026

Ortega / Araujo v Cañellas / Martinez

Pre-match odds

Ortega / Araujo

96%

Avg Elo 1805

Cañellas / Martinez

4%

Avg Elo 1525

Elo gap 280

Ortega / Araujo delivered as 96% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Ortega / AraujoCañellas / Martinez

63%
Points won
37%
70%
Points won on serve
44%
56%
Points won on return
30%
67%
1st-serve points won
44%
88%
2nd-serve points won
44%
56%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
56%
Points won returning 2nd serve
12%
71%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
4
8
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

69%
Points won
31%
84%
Points won on serve
45%
55%
Points won on return
16%
88%
1st-serve points won
40%
50%
2nd-serve points won
60%
60%
Points won returning 1st serve
12%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
100%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
3

Set 2

58%
Points won
42%
60%
Points won on serve
43%
57%
Points won on return
40%
47%
1st-serve points won
46%
100%
2nd-serve points won
25%
54%
Points won returning 1st serve
53%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
60%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.