The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenSeptember 11, 2026

Alonso / Guinart v Fernandez / Calvo

Suzanne-Lenglen02:05

Pre-match odds

Alonso / Guinart

6%

Avg Elo 1795

Fernandez / Calvo

94%

Avg Elo 2031

Elo gap 236

Fernandez / Calvo delivered as 94% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Alonso / GuinartFernandez / Calvo

48%
Points won
52%
56%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
44%
57%
1st-serve points won
59%
40%
2nd-serve points won
58%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
43%
42%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
27%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
11
13
Service games
13
Stats by set

Set 1

58%
Points won
42%
73%
Points won on serve
51%
49%
Points won on return
27%
74%
1st-serve points won
54%
67%
2nd-serve points won
44%
46%
Points won returning 1st serve
26%
56%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
40%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Set 2

43%
Points won
57%
50%
Points won on serve
64%
36%
Points won on return
50%
50%
1st-serve points won
59%
0%
2nd-serve points won
100%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
50%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
67%
4
Longest run of points
8
4
Service games
4

Set 3

44%
Points won
56%
50%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
50%
53%
1st-serve points won
67%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
47%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
25%
Break points converted
40%
4
Longest run of points
11
5
Service games
5

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.