FinalWomenSeptember 13, 2026
Fernandez / Calvo v Ustero / Sanchez
Pre-match odds
UpsetFernandez / Calvo
72%
Avg Elo 2060
Ustero / Sanchez
28%
Avg Elo 1977
Elo gap 83
Ustero / Sanchez won with a 28% chance — about 1 in 4.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Fernandez / CalvoUstero / Sanchez
- Points won 64%
- Points won on serve 76%
- Points won on return 55%
- 1st-serve points won 77%
- 2nd-serve points won 71%
- Points won returning 1st serve 55%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 60%
- Break points converted 71%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 7
36%
45%
24%
45%
40%
23%
29%
0%
4
7
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 60%
- Points won on serve 74%
- Points won on return 50%
- 1st-serve points won 79%
- 2nd-serve points won 50%
- Points won returning 1st serve 48%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 67%
- Break points converted 50%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 4
40%
50%
26%
52%
33%
21%
50%
0%
4
4
Set 2
- Points won 69%
- Points won on serve 80%
- Points won on return 62%
- 1st-serve points won 75%
- 2nd-serve points won 100%
- Points won returning 1st serve 64%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 100%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 3
31%
38%
20%
36%
50%
25%
0%
0%
3
3
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.