The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenSeptember 7, 2026

Figuerola / Belmont v Ayats / Sanchez

Pre-match odds

Figuerola / Belmont

26%

Avg Elo 1554

Ayats / Sanchez

74%

Avg Elo 1644

Elo gap 90

Ayats / Sanchez delivered as 74% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Figuerola / BelmontAyats / Sanchez

42%
Points won
58%
52%
Points won on serve
68%
32%
Points won on return
48%
52%
1st-serve points won
68%
50%
2nd-serve points won
67%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
100%
Break points converted
57%
6
Longest run of points
9
9
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

45%
Points won
55%
53%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
47%
56%
1st-serve points won
67%
0%
2nd-serve points won
60%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
100%
Break points converted
67%
6
Longest run of points
7
5
Service games
5

Set 2

39%
Points won
61%
50%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
50%
45%
1st-serve points won
70%
100%
2nd-serve points won
75%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
55%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
9
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.