Round of 16WomenSeptember 6, 2026
Fernandez / Guerra v Castillon / Vano
Pre-match odds
Upset71%
Avg Elo 1585
29%
Avg Elo 1507
Elo gap 78
Castillon / Vano won with a 29% chance — about 1 in 3.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Fernandez / GuerraCastillon / Vano
- Points won 51%
- Points won on serve 57%
- Points won on return 43%
- 1st-serve points won 60%
- 2nd-serve points won 47%
- Points won returning 1st serve 41%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 36%
- Longest run of points 9
- Service games 12
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 27%
- Points won on serve 33%
- Points won on return 23%
- 1st-serve points won 33%
- 2nd-serve points won 33%
- Points won returning 1st serve 17%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 0%
- Longest run of points 3
- Service games 3
Set 2
- Points won 62%
- Points won on serve 62%
- Points won on return 60%
- 1st-serve points won 67%
- 2nd-serve points won 40%
- Points won returning 1st serve 55%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 75%
- Break points converted 67%
- Longest run of points 9
- Service games 4
Set 3
- Points won 56%
- Points won on serve 63%
- Points won on return 49%
- 1st-serve points won 63%
- 2nd-serve points won 62%
- Points won returning 1st serve 52%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 38%
- Break points converted 33%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 5
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.