The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenSeptember 7, 2026

Santos / Perez v Martinez / Lopez

Court 701:36

Pre-match odds

Santos / Perez

52%

Avg Elo 1500

Martinez / Lopez

48%

Avg Elo 1491

Elo gap 9

Martinez / Lopez won a near coin flip (48%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Santos / PerezMartinez / Lopez

43%
Points won
57%
47%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
53%
46%
1st-serve points won
58%
50%
2nd-serve points won
83%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
54%
17%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
25%
Break points converted
56%
4
Longest run of points
5
9
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

45%
Points won
55%
51%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
49%
52%
1st-serve points won
56%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
44%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
20%
Break points converted
40%
4
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

41%
Points won
59%
39%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
61%
39%
1st-serve points won
59%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
61%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
33%
Break points converted
75%
3
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.