QuarterfinalWomenSeptember 25, 2026
Castello / Rufo v Perez / Fassio
Pre-match odds
UpsetCastello / Rufo
69%
Avg Elo 1744
Perez / Fassio
31%
Avg Elo 1676
Elo gap 68
Perez / Fassio won with a 31% chance — about 1 in 3.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.