Round of 16MenSeptember 28, 2026
Nolten / Van Betuw v Axelsson / Ortega
Pre-match odds
Nolten / Van Betuw
28%
Avg Elo 1494
Axelsson / Ortega
72%
Avg Elo 1577
Elo gap 83
Axelsson / Ortega delivered as 72% favourites.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Nolten / Van BetuwAxelsson / Ortega
- Points won 50%
- Points won on serve 62%
- Points won on return 39%
- 1st-serve points won 67%
- 2nd-serve points won 25%
- Points won returning 1st serve 38%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 40%
- Break points converted 60%
- Longest run of points 6
- Service games 15
50%
61%
38%
62%
60%
33%
75%
36%
6
16
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 37%
- Points won on serve 45%
- Points won on return 30%
- 1st-serve points won 47%
- 2nd-serve points won 33%
- Points won returning 1st serve 33%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 20%
- Break points converted 0%
- Longest run of points 2
- Service games 3
63%
70%
55%
67%
80%
53%
67%
67%
6
4
Set 2
- Points won 52%
- Points won on serve 58%
- Points won on return 46%
- 1st-serve points won 66%
- 2nd-serve points won 14%
- Points won returning 1st serve 45%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 50%
- Longest run of points 6
- Service games 6
48%
54%
42%
55%
50%
34%
86%
25%
5
6
Set 3
- Points won 56%
- Points won on serve 80%
- Points won on return 33%
- 1st-serve points won 82%
- 2nd-serve points won 50%
- Points won returning 1st serve 29%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 44%
- Break points converted 100%
- Longest run of points 6
- Service games 6
44%
67%
20%
71%
56%
18%
50%
0%
5
6
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.