QuarterfinalMenSeptember 29, 2026
Insa / Miñano v Axelsson / Ortega
Pre-match odds
Insa / Miñano
36%
Avg Elo 1535
Axelsson / Ortega
64%
Avg Elo 1584
Elo gap 50
Axelsson / Ortega delivered as 64% favourites.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Insa / MiñanoAxelsson / Ortega
- Points won 53%
- Points won on serve 66%
- Points won on return 42%
- 1st-serve points won 67%
- 2nd-serve points won 60%
- Points won returning 1st serve 41%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 50%
- Longest run of points 5
- Service games 10
47%
58%
34%
59%
50%
33%
40%
33%
6
11
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 57%
- Points won on serve 64%
- Points won on return 52%
- 1st-serve points won 64%
- 2nd-serve points won 0%
- Points won returning 1st serve 50%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 67%
- Break points converted 60%
- Longest run of points 5
- Service games 4
43%
48%
36%
50%
33%
36%
0%
50%
6
5
Set 2
- Points won 51%
- Points won on serve 67%
- Points won on return 36%
- 1st-serve points won 68%
- 2nd-serve points won 60%
- Points won returning 1st serve 36%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 33%
- Break points converted 0%
- Longest run of points 5
- Service games 6
49%
64%
33%
64%
67%
32%
40%
0%
4
6
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.