The Padel Brief

Round of 16WomenSeptember 28, 2026

Borrero / Navarro v Andrejszki / Merah

Pre-match odds

Borrero / Navarro

86%

Avg Elo 1574

Andrejszki / Merah

14%

Avg Elo 1413

Elo gap 161

Borrero / Navarro delivered as 86% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Borrero / NavarroAndrejszki / Merah

73%
Points won
27%
79%
Points won on serve
32%
68%
Points won on return
21%
77%
1st-serve points won
32%
100%
2nd-serve points won
30%
68%
Points won returning 1st serve
23%
70%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
60%
Break points converted
0%
14
Longest run of points
3
6
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

69%
Points won
31%
78%
Points won on serve
38%
62%
Points won on return
22%
78%
1st-serve points won
35%
0%
2nd-serve points won
43%
65%
Points won returning 1st serve
22%
57%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
14
Longest run of points
3
3
Service games
4

Set 2

78%
Points won
22%
80%
Points won on serve
24%
76%
Points won on return
20%
77%
1st-serve points won
29%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
71%
Points won returning 1st serve
23%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
75%
Break points converted
0%
8
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.