The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenSeptember 29, 2026

Borrero / Navarro v Parmigiani / Kurz

Court 301:03

Pre-match odds

Borrero / Navarro

69%

Avg Elo 1582

Parmigiani / Kurz

31%

Avg Elo 1512

Elo gap 70

Borrero / Navarro delivered as 69% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Borrero / NavarroParmigiani / Kurz

58%
Points won
42%
65%
Points won on serve
49%
51%
Points won on return
35%
68%
1st-serve points won
51%
50%
2nd-serve points won
33%
49%
Points won returning 1st serve
32%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
83%
Break points converted
50%
10
Longest run of points
7
8
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

57%
Points won
43%
58%
Points won on serve
44%
56%
Points won on return
42%
62%
1st-serve points won
50%
40%
2nd-serve points won
20%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
80%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
75%
Break points converted
50%
7
Longest run of points
7
4
Service games
5

Set 2

60%
Points won
40%
73%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
27%
74%
1st-serve points won
53%
67%
2nd-serve points won
100%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
26%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
100%
Break points converted
0%
10
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.