The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenSeptember 29, 2026

Groenveld / Betz v Martinez / Lopez

Court 401:15

Pre-match odds

Groenveld / Betz

45%

Avg Elo 1496

Martinez / Lopez

55%

Avg Elo 1513

Elo gap 17

Martinez / Lopez won a near coin flip (55%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Groenveld / BetzMartinez / Lopez

38%
Points won
62%
48%
Points won on serve
73%
27%
Points won on return
52%
49%
1st-serve points won
72%
44%
2nd-serve points won
100%
28%
Points won returning 1st serve
51%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
56%
0%
Break points converted
44%
4
Longest run of points
10
8
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

44%
Points won
56%
55%
Points won on serve
68%
32%
Points won on return
45%
55%
1st-serve points won
68%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
45%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
6
5
Service games
4

Set 2

30%
Points won
70%
40%
Points won on serve
81%
19%
Points won on return
60%
39%
1st-serve points won
78%
43%
2nd-serve points won
100%
22%
Points won returning 1st serve
61%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
57%
0%
Break points converted
40%
2
Longest run of points
10
3
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.