The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenSeptember 30, 2026

Diestro / Sintes v Roglan / Aragon

Court 301:55

Pre-match odds

Diestro / Sintes

69%

Avg Elo 1642

Roglan / Aragon

31%

Avg Elo 1572

Elo gap 70

Diestro / Sintes delivered as 69% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Diestro / SintesRoglan / Aragon

56%
Points won
44%
73%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
27%
71%
1st-serve points won
59%
83%
2nd-serve points won
73%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
29%
27%
Points won returning 2nd serve
17%
43%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
6
15
Service games
14
Stats by set

Set 1

58%
Points won
42%
76%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
24%
78%
1st-serve points won
58%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
22%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
100%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
6
5
Service games
4

Set 2

51%
Points won
49%
72%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
28%
68%
1st-serve points won
67%
88%
2nd-serve points won
71%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
32%
29%
Points won returning 2nd serve
12%
0%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 3

61%
Points won
39%
71%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
29%
68%
1st-serve points won
48%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
52%
Points won returning 1st serve
32%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.