Round of 16MenOctober 1, 2026
Alfonso / Libaak v Guerrero / Leal
Pre-match odds
UpsetAlfonso / Libaak
33%
Avg Elo 1775
Guerrero / Leal
67%
Avg Elo 1839
Elo gap 64
Alfonso / Libaak won with a 33% chance — about 1 in 3.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Alfonso / LibaakGuerrero / Leal
- Points won 48%
- Points won on serve 60%
- Points won on return 35%
- 1st-serve points won 63%
- 2nd-serve points won 36%
- Points won returning 1st serve 34%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 42%
- Break points converted 38%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 16
52%
65%
40%
66%
58%
37%
64%
33%
6
15
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 42%
- Points won on serve 50%
- Points won on return 33%
- 1st-serve points won 54%
- 2nd-serve points won 0%
- Points won returning 1st serve 34%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 25%
- Break points converted 40%
- Longest run of points 6
- Service games 6
58%
67%
50%
66%
75%
46%
100%
60%
6
6
Set 2
- Points won 56%
- Points won on serve 71%
- Points won on return 39%
- 1st-serve points won 73%
- 2nd-serve points won 60%
- Points won returning 1st serve 36%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 67%
- Break points converted 33%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 5
44%
61%
29%
64%
33%
27%
40%
0%
5
4
Set 3
- Points won 47%
- Points won on serve 62%
- Points won on return 32%
- 1st-serve points won 65%
- 2nd-serve points won 33%
- Points won returning 1st serve 31%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 40%
- Break points converted 0%
- Longest run of points 4
- Service games 5
53%
68%
38%
69%
60%
35%
67%
25%
5
5
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.