Round of 16MenOctober 1, 2026
Stupaczuk / Sanz v Castaño / Hernandez
Pre-match odds
Stupaczuk / Sanz
91%
Avg Elo 1829
Castaño / Hernandez
9%
Avg Elo 1625
Elo gap 204
Stupaczuk / Sanz delivered as 91% favourites.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Stupaczuk / SanzCastaño / Hernandez
- Points won 34%
- Points won on serve 34%
- Points won on return 33%
- 1st-serve points won 35%
- 2nd-serve points won 29%
- Points won returning 1st serve 32%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 40%
- Break points converted 67%
- Longest run of points 5
- Service games 8
66%
67%
66%
68%
60%
65%
71%
75%
13
8
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 33%
- Points won on serve 35%
- Points won on return 32%
- 1st-serve points won 39%
- 2nd-serve points won 20%
- Points won returning 1st serve 33%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 25%
- Break points converted 50%
- Longest run of points 3
- Service games 4
67%
68%
65%
67%
75%
61%
80%
100%
8
4
Set 2
- Points won 34%
- Points won on serve 33%
- Points won on return 35%
- 1st-serve points won 32%
- 2nd-serve points won 50%
- Points won returning 1st serve 32%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 100%
- Break points converted 100%
- Longest run of points 5
- Service games 4
66%
65%
67%
68%
0%
68%
50%
60%
7
4
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.