The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenOctober 2, 2026

Campagnolo / Gonzalez v Navarro / Di Nenno

Center Court02:48

Pre-match odds

Upset
Campagnolo / Gonzalez

24%

Avg Elo 1772

Navarro / Di Nenno

76%

Avg Elo 1871

Elo gap 99

Campagnolo / Gonzalez won with a 24% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Campagnolo / GonzalezNavarro / Di Nenno

49%
Points won
51%
63%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
37%
66%
1st-serve points won
67%
42%
2nd-serve points won
59%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
34%
41%
Points won returning 2nd serve
58%
40%
Break points converted
33%
7
Longest run of points
14
16
Service games
16
Stats by set

Set 1

33%
Points won
67%
44%
Points won on serve
81%
19%
Points won on return
56%
45%
1st-serve points won
80%
33%
2nd-serve points won
100%
20%
Points won returning 1st serve
55%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
0%
Break points converted
40%
4
Longest run of points
8
4
Service games
4

Set 2

54%
Points won
46%
75%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
25%
83%
1st-serve points won
66%
20%
2nd-serve points won
67%
34%
Points won returning 1st serve
17%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
80%
0%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Set 3

54%
Points won
46%
64%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
36%
63%
1st-serve points won
59%
75%
2nd-serve points won
50%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
37%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
67%
Break points converted
33%
5
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.