QuarterfinalMenOctober 2, 2026
Stupaczuk / Sanz v Galan / Chingotto
Pre-match odds
UpsetStupaczuk / Sanz
7%
Avg Elo 1834
Galan / Chingotto
93%
Avg Elo 2057
Elo gap 223
Stupaczuk / Sanz won with a 7% chance — about 1 in 14.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Stupaczuk / SanzGalan / Chingotto
- Points won 44%
- Points won on serve 58%
- Points won on return 28%
- 1st-serve points won 56%
- 2nd-serve points won 80%
- Points won returning 1st serve 27%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 33%
- Break points converted 33%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 10
56%
72%
42%
73%
67%
44%
20%
43%
6
10
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 44%
- Points won on serve 63%
- Points won on return 20%
- 1st-serve points won 63%
- 2nd-serve points won 67%
- Points won returning 1st serve 23%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 0%
- Break points converted 0%
- Longest run of points 4
- Service games 5
56%
80%
37%
77%
100%
37%
33%
33%
6
5
Set 2
- Points won 45%
- Points won on serve 53%
- Points won on return 36%
- 1st-serve points won 50%
- 2nd-serve points won 100%
- Points won returning 1st serve 32%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 33%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 5
55%
64%
47%
68%
50%
50%
0%
50%
4
5
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.