SemifinalMenOctober 3, 2026
Nieto / Yanguas v Stupaczuk / Sanz
Pre-match odds
Nieto / Yanguas
41%
Avg Elo 1838
Stupaczuk / Sanz
59%
Avg Elo 1870
Elo gap 32
Stupaczuk / Sanz delivered as 59% favourites.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Nieto / YanguasStupaczuk / Sanz
- Points won 57%
- Points won on serve 68%
- Points won on return 49%
- 1st-serve points won 66%
- 2nd-serve points won 100%
- Points won returning 1st serve 48%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 67%
- Break points converted 38%
- Longest run of points 6
- Service games 8
43%
51%
32%
52%
33%
34%
0%
100%
4
8
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 59%
- Points won on serve 64%
- Points won on return 56%
- 1st-serve points won 64%
- 2nd-serve points won 0%
- Points won returning 1st serve 55%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 100%
- Break points converted 30%
- Longest run of points 5
- Service games 3
41%
44%
36%
45%
0%
36%
0%
0%
2
3
Set 2
- Points won 55%
- Points won on serve 72%
- Points won on return 42%
- 1st-serve points won 68%
- 2nd-serve points won 100%
- Points won returning 1st serve 41%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 67%
- Longest run of points 6
- Service games 5
45%
58%
28%
59%
50%
32%
0%
100%
4
5
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.