The Padel Brief

Round of 32WomenSeptember 30, 2026

Montes / Barrera v Lopez / Fassio

Court 302:18

Pre-match odds

Montes / Barrera

58%

Avg Elo 1664

Lopez / Fassio

42%

Avg Elo 1637

Elo gap 27

Montes / Barrera delivered as 58% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Montes / BarreraLopez / Fassio

48%
Points won
52%
60%
Points won on serve
64%
36%
Points won on return
40%
60%
1st-serve points won
62%
60%
2nd-serve points won
77%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
40%
23%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
40%
Break points converted
50%
5
Longest run of points
6
15
Service games
15
Stats by set

Set 1

35%
Points won
65%
48%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
52%
50%
1st-serve points won
75%
0%
2nd-serve points won
100%
25%
Points won returning 1st serve
50%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
0%
Break points converted
67%
4
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
4

Set 2

52%
Points won
48%
74%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
26%
70%
1st-serve points won
64%
100%
2nd-serve points won
75%
36%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
33%
Break points converted
0%
3
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Set 3

52%
Points won
48%
58%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
42%
60%
1st-serve points won
56%
40%
2nd-serve points won
0%
44%
Points won returning 1st serve
40%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
50%
Break points converted
33%
5
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.