The Padel Brief

Round of 32WomenSeptember 30, 2026

Bidahorria / Riera v Marchetti / Arruabarrena

Pre-match odds

Bidahorria / Riera

69%

Avg Elo 1631

Marchetti / Arruabarrena

31%

Avg Elo 1561

Elo gap 71

Bidahorria / Riera delivered as 69% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Bidahorria / RieraMarchetti / Arruabarrena

60%
Points won
40%
73%
Points won on serve
52%
48%
Points won on return
27%
74%
1st-serve points won
51%
67%
2nd-serve points won
55%
49%
Points won returning 1st serve
26%
45%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
67%
Break points converted
25%
10
Longest run of points
5
9
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

57%
Points won
43%
69%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
31%
72%
1st-serve points won
45%
62%
2nd-serve points won
86%
55%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
14%
Points won returning 2nd serve
38%
50%
Break points converted
100%
10
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

64%
Points won
36%
77%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
23%
76%
1st-serve points won
57%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
24%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.