The Padel Brief

Round of 32WomenSeptember 30, 2026

Rodriguez / Canovas v Rufo / Iglesias

Center Court02:22

Pre-match odds

Rodriguez / Canovas

34%

Avg Elo 1682

Rufo / Iglesias

66%

Avg Elo 1739

Elo gap 57

Rufo / Iglesias delivered as 66% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Rodriguez / CanovasRufo / Iglesias

52%
Points won
48%
62%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
38%
65%
1st-serve points won
61%
44%
2nd-serve points won
46%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
54%
Points won returning 2nd serve
56%
45%
Break points converted
33%
8
Longest run of points
5
15
Service games
15
Stats by set

Set 1

47%
Points won
53%
56%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
44%
61%
1st-serve points won
64%
33%
2nd-serve points won
57%
36%
Points won returning 1st serve
39%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
100%
Break points converted
100%
7
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 2

65%
Points won
35%
67%
Points won on serve
36%
64%
Points won on return
33%
70%
1st-serve points won
42%
0%
2nd-serve points won
30%
58%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
70%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
60%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
3
3
Service games
3

Set 3

49%
Points won
51%
64%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
36%
66%
1st-serve points won
64%
56%
2nd-serve points won
57%
36%
Points won returning 1st serve
34%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
44%
20%
Break points converted
17%
7
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.