The Padel Brief

Round of 16WomenOctober 1, 2026

Rufo / Iglesias v Escacena / Jensen

Court 301:41

Pre-match odds

Rufo / Iglesias

50%

Avg Elo 1750

Escacena / Jensen

50%

Avg Elo 1748

Elo gap 2

Escacena / Jensen won a near coin flip (50%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Rufo / IglesiasEscacena / Jensen

46%
Points won
54%
49%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
51%
47%
1st-serve points won
51%
60%
2nd-serve points won
89%
49%
Points won returning 1st serve
53%
11%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
67%
Break points converted
86%
6
Longest run of points
8
11
Service games
11
Stats by set

Set 1

41%
Points won
59%
52%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
48%
50%
1st-serve points won
63%
67%
2nd-serve points won
100%
37%
Points won returning 1st serve
50%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
100%
Break points converted
67%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

50%
Points won
50%
47%
Points won on serve
47%
53%
Points won on return
53%
45%
1st-serve points won
44%
57%
2nd-serve points won
75%
56%
Points won returning 1st serve
55%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
43%
60%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
8
6
Service games
6

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.