The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenOctober 4, 2026

Fitzon / Trumpler v Van Opstal / Guimet

Court 2

Pre-match odds

Upset
Fitzon / Trumpler

71%

Avg Elo 1508

Van Opstal / Guimet

29%

Avg Elo 1430

Elo gap 78

Van Opstal / Guimet won with a 29% chance — about 1 in 3.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Fitzon / TrumplerVan Opstal / Guimet

35%
Points won
65%
49%
Points won on serve
82%
18%
Points won on return
51%
49%
1st-serve points won
84%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
16%
Points won returning 1st serve
51%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
8
8
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

36%
Points won
64%
50%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
50%
50%
1st-serve points won
84%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
16%
Points won returning 1st serve
50%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
4

Set 2

34%
Points won
66%
48%
Points won on serve
84%
16%
Points won on return
52%
48%
1st-serve points won
84%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
16%
Points won returning 1st serve
52%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
50%
3
Longest run of points
8
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.