The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenOctober 4, 2026

Mazzoni / Jensen v Boehnke / Merten

Winner
66
Court 2

Pre-match odds

Mazzoni / Jensen

39%

Avg Elo 1513

Boehnke / Merten

61%

Avg Elo 1550

Elo gap 38

Boehnke / Merten delivered as 61% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Mazzoni / JensenBoehnke / Merten

43%
Points won
57%
50%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
50%
47%
1st-serve points won
62%
80%
2nd-serve points won
67%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
53%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
0%
Break points converted
80%
4
Longest run of points
5
7
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

40%
Points won
60%
45%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
55%
39%
1st-serve points won
63%
100%
2nd-serve points won
60%
37%
Points won returning 1st serve
61%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
67%
4
Longest run of points
5
3
Service games
4

Set 2

45%
Points won
55%
53%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
47%
52%
1st-serve points won
62%
67%
2nd-serve points won
100%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.