The Padel Brief

Round of 16MenOctober 5, 2026

Montiel / Santigosa v Leira / Gonzalez

Court 200:17

Pre-match odds

Montiel / Santigosa

92%

Avg Elo 1710

Leira / Gonzalez

8%

Avg Elo 1495

Elo gap 216

Montiel / Santigosa delivered as 92% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Montiel / SantigosaLeira / Gonzalez

62%
Points won
38%
80%
Points won on serve
44%
56%
Points won on return
20%
89%
1st-serve points won
39%
0%
2nd-serve points won
75%
61%
Points won returning 1st serve
11%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
67%
Break points converted
0%
8
Longest run of points
2
2
Service games
3
Stats by set

Set 1

62%
Points won
38%
80%
Points won on serve
44%
56%
Points won on return
20%
89%
1st-serve points won
39%
0%
2nd-serve points won
75%
61%
Points won returning 1st serve
11%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
67%
Break points converted
0%
8
Longest run of points
2
2
Service games
3

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.