The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenOctober 6, 2026

Martinez / Hernandez v Dal Bianco / Pineda

Pre-match odds

Martinez / Hernandez

65%

Avg Elo 1668

Dal Bianco / Pineda

35%

Avg Elo 1616

Elo gap 53

Martinez / Hernandez delivered as 65% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Martinez / HernandezDal Bianco / Pineda

70%
Points won
30%
71%
Points won on serve
31%
69%
Points won on return
29%
76%
1st-serve points won
31%
50%
2nd-serve points won
33%
69%
Points won returning 1st serve
24%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
71%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
7
Service games
6
Stats by set

Set 1

67%
Points won
33%
73%
Points won on serve
43%
57%
Points won on return
27%
83%
1st-serve points won
42%
25%
2nd-serve points won
50%
58%
Points won returning 1st serve
17%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
67%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
3

Set 2

74%
Points won
26%
70%
Points won on serve
20%
80%
Points won on return
30%
69%
1st-serve points won
21%
75%
2nd-serve points won
0%
79%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
75%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.