Round of 16WomenOctober 5, 2026
Sanchez / Fernandez v Baldi / Margherita
Pre-match odds
Sanchez / Fernandez
40%
Avg Elo 1440
Baldi / Margherita
60%
Avg Elo 1477
Elo gap 37
Baldi / Margherita delivered as 60% favourites.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Sanchez / FernandezBaldi / Margherita
- Points won 59%
- Points won on serve 60%
- Points won on return 57%
- 1st-serve points won 62%
- 2nd-serve points won 43%
- Points won returning 1st serve 59%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 62%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 9
41%
43%
40%
41%
50%
38%
57%
40%
6
8
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 58%
- Points won on serve 60%
- Points won on return 57%
- 1st-serve points won 57%
- 2nd-serve points won 75%
- Points won returning 1st serve 58%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 100%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 4
42%
43%
40%
42%
50%
43%
25%
33%
6
4
Set 2
- Points won 59%
- Points won on serve 60%
- Points won on return 58%
- 1st-serve points won 67%
- 2nd-serve points won 0%
- Points won returning 1st serve 60%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 40%
- Longest run of points 6
- Service games 5
41%
42%
40%
40%
50%
33%
100%
50%
5
4
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.