Round of 16WomenOctober 5, 2026
Marques / Ribeiro v Vazquez / Diaz
Pre-match odds
UpsetMarques / Ribeiro
28%
Avg Elo 1393
Vazquez / Diaz
72%
Avg Elo 1474
Elo gap 82
Marques / Ribeiro won with a 28% chance — about 1 in 4.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Marques / RibeiroVazquez / Diaz
- Points won 35%
- Points won on serve 38%
- Points won on return 33%
- 1st-serve points won 38%
- 2nd-serve points won 38%
- Points won returning 1st serve 32%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 40%
- Break points converted 17%
- Longest run of points 4
- Service games 7
65%
67%
62%
68%
60%
62%
62%
56%
12
8
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 37%
- Points won on serve 26%
- Points won on return 43%
- 1st-serve points won 25%
- 2nd-serve points won 33%
- Points won returning 1st serve 43%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 40%
- Break points converted 17%
- Longest run of points 2
- Service games 3
63%
57%
74%
57%
60%
75%
67%
60%
6
4
Set 2
- Points won 33%
- Points won on serve 46%
- Points won on return 15%
- 1st-serve points won 48%
- 2nd-serve points won 40%
- Points won returning 1st serve 15%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 0%
- Break points converted 0%
- Longest run of points 4
- Service games 4
67%
85%
54%
85%
0%
52%
60%
50%
8
4
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.