The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenOctober 7, 2026

Mouriño / Quilez v Diestro / Sintes

Court 201:50

Pre-match odds

Mouriño / Quilez

41%

Avg Elo 1615

Diestro / Sintes

59%

Avg Elo 1647

Elo gap 32

Diestro / Sintes delivered as 59% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Mouriño / QuilezDiestro / Sintes

49%
Points won
51%
60%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
40%
58%
1st-serve points won
59%
75%
2nd-serve points won
88%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
42%
12%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
38%
Break points converted
44%
6
Longest run of points
9
13
Service games
14
Stats by set

Set 1

47%
Points won
53%
45%
Points won on serve
51%
49%
Points won on return
55%
43%
1st-serve points won
46%
100%
2nd-serve points won
83%
54%
Points won returning 1st serve
57%
17%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
33%
Break points converted
60%
6
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
5

Set 2

59%
Points won
41%
76%
Points won on serve
64%
36%
Points won on return
24%
80%
1st-serve points won
60%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
20%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
100%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
4

Set 3

41%
Points won
59%
59%
Points won on serve
76%
24%
Points won on return
41%
54%
1st-serve points won
76%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
24%
Points won returning 1st serve
46%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
50%
3
Longest run of points
9
4
Service games
5

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.