The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenOctober 7, 2026

Piotto / Barahona v Geens / Moragues

Pre-match odds

Piotto / Barahona

25%

Avg Elo 1614

Geens / Moragues

75%

Avg Elo 1711

Elo gap 98

Geens / Moragues delivered as 75% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Piotto / BarahonaGeens / Moragues

44%
Points won
56%
62%
Points won on serve
73%
27%
Points won on return
38%
66%
1st-serve points won
73%
20%
2nd-serve points won
75%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
34%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
80%
0%
Break points converted
40%
4
Longest run of points
5
9
Service games
10
Stats by set

Set 1

45%
Points won
55%
68%
Points won on serve
75%
25%
Points won on return
32%
74%
1st-serve points won
73%
0%
2nd-serve points won
100%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
26%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
0%
Break points converted
33%
4
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
5

Set 2

44%
Points won
56%
58%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
42%
60%
1st-serve points won
72%
33%
2nd-serve points won
50%
28%
Points won returning 1st serve
40%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
0%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.