The Padel Brief

Round of 16MenOctober 8, 2026

Montiel / Santigosa v Sanchez / Gutierrez

Pre-match odds

Montiel / Santigosa

47%

Avg Elo 1732

Sanchez / Gutierrez

53%

Avg Elo 1744

Elo gap 12

Sanchez / Gutierrez won a near coin flip (53%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Montiel / SantigosaSanchez / Gutierrez

39%
Points won
61%
43%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
57%
42%
1st-serve points won
70%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
58%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
17%
Break points converted
71%
4
Longest run of points
9
8
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

38%
Points won
62%
43%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
57%
40%
1st-serve points won
71%
67%
2nd-serve points won
0%
29%
Points won returning 1st serve
60%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
9
4
Service games
4

Set 2

40%
Points won
60%
43%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
57%
43%
1st-serve points won
67%
43%
2nd-serve points won
0%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
57%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
57%
100%
Break points converted
60%
4
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.