The Padel Brief

SemifinalMenOctober 10, 2026

Tapia / Coello v Lebron / Augsburger

Center Court01:03

Pre-match odds

Tapia / Coello

93%

Avg Elo 2110

Lebron / Augsburger

7%

Avg Elo 1885

Elo gap 225

Tapia / Coello delivered as 93% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Tapia / CoelloLebron / Augsburger

59%
Points won
41%
73%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
27%
71%
1st-serve points won
51%
100%
2nd-serve points won
86%
49%
Points won returning 1st serve
29%
14%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
43%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
9
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

61%
Points won
39%
74%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
26%
70%
1st-serve points won
43%
100%
2nd-serve points won
100%
57%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Set 2

56%
Points won
44%
72%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
28%
71%
1st-serve points won
59%
100%
2nd-serve points won
75%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
29%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
33%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.