Round of 16WomenOctober 8, 2026
Alonso / Guinart v Castello / Rodriguez
Pre-match odds
Alonso / Guinart
58%
Avg Elo 1752
Castello / Rodriguez
42%
Avg Elo 1724
Elo gap 28
Alonso / Guinart delivered as 58% favourites.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Match stats
Alonso / GuinartCastello / Rodriguez
- Points won 50%
- Points won on serve 62%
- Points won on return 39%
- 1st-serve points won 61%
- 2nd-serve points won 67%
- Points won returning 1st serve 40%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 38%
- Break points converted 44%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 18
50%
61%
38%
60%
62%
39%
33%
62%
6
18
Stats by set
Set 1
- Points won 47%
- Points won on serve 62%
- Points won on return 32%
- 1st-serve points won 62%
- 2nd-serve points won 60%
- Points won returning 1st serve 29%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 0%
- Longest run of points 6
- Service games 6
53%
68%
38%
71%
50%
38%
40%
25%
5
6
Set 2
- Points won 57%
- Points won on serve 72%
- Points won on return 44%
- 1st-serve points won 70%
- 2nd-serve points won 100%
- Points won returning 1st serve 44%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 50%
- Break points converted 50%
- Longest run of points 7
- Service games 6
43%
56%
28%
56%
50%
30%
0%
100%
5
6
Set 3
- Points won 47%
- Points won on serve 52%
- Points won on return 42%
- 1st-serve points won 50%
- 2nd-serve points won 60%
- Points won returning 1st serve 45%
- Points won returning 2nd serve 0%
- Break points converted 67%
- Longest run of points 6
- Service games 6
53%
58%
48%
55%
100%
50%
40%
100%
6
6
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.