The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenOctober 9, 2026

Salazar / Osoro v Ustero / Sanchez

Center Court00:50

Pre-match odds

Salazar / Osoro

5%

Avg Elo 1804

Ustero / Sanchez

95%

Avg Elo 2062

Elo gap 258

Ustero / Sanchez delivered as 95% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Salazar / OsoroUstero / Sanchez

32%
Points won
68%
40%
Points won on serve
78%
22%
Points won on return
60%
42%
1st-serve points won
81%
25%
2nd-serve points won
50%
19%
Points won returning 1st serve
58%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
0%
Break points converted
62%
3
Longest run of points
9
7
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

32%
Points won
68%
40%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
60%
41%
1st-serve points won
79%
33%
2nd-serve points won
100%
21%
Points won returning 1st serve
59%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
0%
Break points converted
50%
2
Longest run of points
8
4
Service games
3

Set 2

32%
Points won
68%
41%
Points won on serve
76%
24%
Points won on return
59%
44%
1st-serve points won
83%
0%
2nd-serve points won
33%
17%
Points won returning 1st serve
56%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
9
3
Service games
4

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.